NilsBriggen
d604bb14ff
- buildRatings.ts: walks 49k historical results → World-Football-Elo per team, data-calibrated goals model (goals-per-Elo slope, mean goals) + MLE-fit Dixon-Coles rho. Top: Spain/Argentina/France (the real 2026 favourites) - src/lib/model: elo, poisson/dixon-coles, predict, host-advantage, monteCarlo (full 48-team sim — group sampling, best-third bipartite allocation, knockout advance probs). 20 vitest cases incl. exact per-round count invariants - Server ModelEngine: live Elo re-rating after each result, per-match W/D/L, 20k-sim odds, odds-over-time history; broadcast on finished-result changes - Client: championship board, heat-shaded odds table, lazy-loaded title-race chart (Recharts split to its own chunk), match-prediction bars, bracket advance overlay - Verified: odds render, chart populates as injected results re-rate teams live Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>