Phase 2: predictive model — Elo + Dixon-Coles + Monte Carlo
- buildRatings.ts: walks 49k historical results → World-Football-Elo per team,
data-calibrated goals model (goals-per-Elo slope, mean goals) + MLE-fit
Dixon-Coles rho. Top: Spain/Argentina/France (the real 2026 favourites)
- src/lib/model: elo, poisson/dixon-coles, predict, host-advantage, monteCarlo
(full 48-team sim — group sampling, best-third bipartite allocation, knockout
advance probs). 20 vitest cases incl. exact per-round count invariants
- Server ModelEngine: live Elo re-rating after each result, per-match W/D/L,
20k-sim odds, odds-over-time history; broadcast on finished-result changes
- Client: championship board, heat-shaded odds table, lazy-loaded title-race
chart (Recharts split to its own chunk), match-prediction bars, bracket
advance overlay
- Verified: odds render, chart populates as injected results re-rate teams live
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NilsBriggen
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