111 lines
6.2 KiB
Markdown
111 lines
6.2 KiB
Markdown
# Cup26 v5 — 20 features + a stronger model pipeline
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Drafted after the v4 upgrade (i18n/DE, recency model, freshness, mobile). Each item
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ships independently, smallest-risk-first within its phase; the app stays deployable
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after every commit. Hard constraints stand: bookmaker odds are benchmark-only, squad
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values stay out of the model, no auto-anything that pretends to be betting advice.
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## Model improvement: better than a single validation window
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Today: params fit pre-2018 → hyperparams tuned on 2018–2022 → tested once on
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2022–2026; the shipped model then trains on ALL data with those hyperparams.
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The weakness is hyperparam selection on ONE window — it can overfit that
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window's quirks (e.g. the grid-floor ξ result).
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**v5 scheme — rolling-origin cross-validation (walk-forward CV):**
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1. Five rolling validation folds: tune-eval on 2014–16, 2016–18, 2018–20,
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2020–22, 2022–24, each predicting strictly walk-forward with params fit
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only on data before the fold. Pick hyperparams by MEAN RPS across folds
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(ties → fewer parameters), not by a single window.
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2. Keep 2024–2026 as the untouched FINAL test, evaluated once, reported
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honestly in backtest.json (the public Methodology page).
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3. Add a final probability-calibration layer: isotonic regression fit
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walk-forward on the CV folds' predictions, applied at runtime, validated
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the same way (ship only if mean-fold RPS/ECE improve).
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4. Widen what gets tuned (same discipline): HOME_ADV_ELO, the Elo K scale,
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stage-conditional ensemble weight (group vs knockout), Team-DC window
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length. All cheap grid axes on cached walks.
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5. Shipped model still trains through today + nightly Team-DC refit + live
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fast-Elo re-rating (v4) — recency at runtime, selection by rolling CV.
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## The 20 features
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### A. Live & match experience
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1. **In-play win-probability timeline** — server stores the in-play prob each
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poll while live; match page draws the momentum curve (the "story of the
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match" in one chart).
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2. **Odds-movement chart per match** — odds_history is already captured every
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3h; plot the de-vigged market line vs our frozen model number from
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prediction_snapshots.
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3. **Goal/kickoff notifications (opt-in)** — PWA Web Push: pick matches or a
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team, get goals + kickoff pings (server already knows score changes).
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4. **Penalty-shootout live view** — ESPN summary carries shootout events;
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render kick-by-kick during shootouts instead of the generic timeline.
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5. **Upset meter** — after each match, how surprising was the result vs the
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frozen model (RPS percentile); a tournament-wide "biggest shocks" list.
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### B. Predict & explore
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6. **Bracket what-if mode** — tap winners through the knockout tree; recompute
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title odds client-side under your picks (matchMatrix runs in the browser).
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7. **Group qualification scenarios** — "X advances if…" engine over the final
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group matchday (exhaustive enumeration of remaining group results).
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8. **Team comparison view** — two teams side-by-side: Elo trajectory, form,
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style fingerprint (StatsBomb), squad value, H2H, model matchup.
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9. **Elo history charts** — precompute each WC team's rating path (1872→now,
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and tournament-zoom) at data:build; sparkline on team pages.
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10. **H2H explorer** — pick any two nations (search), full 150-year record +
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the model's hypothetical matchup.
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11. **Golden Boot race** — live top-scorer table from ESPN events + historical
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scorer context per player.
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12. **Model diary** — public log of nightly refits and biggest rating moves
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("Morocco +14 after beating Spain"), feeding the transparency story.
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### C. App & UX
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13. **Favorite team** — star a team: pinned next-match card on Live, its odds
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evolution, one-tap to its page (localStorage, no accounts).
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14. **Daily digest view** — one screen: yesterday's results + model movement,
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today's matches with predictions, the title-odds delta.
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15. **Global search / command palette** — Cmd-K + mobile search: jump to any
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team or match.
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16. **Timezone-correct schedule everywhere** + "my local time" chips and a
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week-strip calendar view of all 104 fixtures.
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17. **Offline polish** — cache the last snapshot in the SW; show a "stale —
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last updated X" banner instead of empty states when offline.
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18. **Accessibility pass** — focus rings, aria-labels on all probability bars
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(text alternatives with real numbers), prefers-reduced-motion, contrast
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audit in both themes.
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19. **Performance pass** — route-level code-splitting (recharts already lazy),
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hover/viewport prefetch, list virtualization where >50 cards, font subset.
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20. **Share links** — per-match/per-team canonical URLs with server-rendered
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OG meta (title + the model's numbers) so shared links unfurl nicely.
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## Order
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Model pipeline first (it gates everything math-adjacent: 1, 5, 6, 12), then
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B6/B7 (pure client math, high wow), then A1/A2 (data already on disk), then
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C13–C16, then the rest. Verify per item: tests + build gate + preview matrix
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(EN/DE × mobile/desktop × themes); deploy in batches of 2-3 features.
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## Status (June 12, after the first v5 night)
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SHIPPED + DEPLOYED: model pipeline (rolling CV confirmed v4; isotonic layer
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validated LOFO and shipped), 1 in-play timeline, 2 odds-movement chart,
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5 upset meter, 6 bracket what-if, 7 qualification scenarios, 8 compare page
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(doubles as 10 H2H explorer), 9 Elo history charts, 12 model diary,
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13 favorite team, 14 daily digest, 15 search palette, 17 offline banner,
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18 a11y pass (charts/bars labelled; reduced-motion was already global),
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20 share/OG meta.
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DEFERRED, with cause:
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- 3 notifications (Web Push): needs an SW strategy change (generateSW →
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importScripts) and real-device permission testing — too risky to land
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blind on the live site mid-tournament. Next session's headline.
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- 4 shootout live view: no real shootout payload exists until the knockouts
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(June 28+); build against real data then.
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- 11 golden boot: ESPN only gives scorer names inside free-text event
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strings — parsing is fragile; needs a structured source first.
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- 16 calendar strip: substantially covered by Predict's day-grouped
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"All upcoming" view; revisit only if navigation still feels lacking.
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- 19 perf pass: bundle is ~476KB main + lazy recharts; fine for a precached
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PWA. Revisit if Lighthouse says otherwise.
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