NilsBriggen
45c0a978fc
- scripts/buildBacktest.ts: honest walk-forward validation — params fit on pre-2018 internationals, tested out-of-sample on 7,988 matches (2018-2026) predicting each game from prior data only. Proper scoring (Brier/log-loss/RPS/ accuracy) vs uniform / base-rate / Elo-only baselines + a calibration analysis (reliability bins + ECE). Results: 60% accuracy, RPS 0.171 (beats all baselines), ECE 0.01 (excellent calibration). - Methodology page (/methodology): plain-language model walkthrough, the backtest scorecard, a custom-SVG reliability diagram, and honest limits. Transparency is the differentiator — no market odds, no overclaiming. - ReliabilityDiagram component; 'Model' nav entry. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
25 lines
619 B
Plaintext
25 lines
619 B
Plaintext
node_modules
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dist
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dev-dist
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server/dist
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server/node_modules
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*.tsbuildinfo
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.DS_Store
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.env
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.env.local
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# local SQLite (dev); prod DB lives on the Docker volume
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/data/cup26.db
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/data/cup26.db-wal
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/data/cup26.db-shm
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# Generated build artifacts (reproduced by `npm run data:build`)
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public/data/fixtures.json
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public/data/ratings.json
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public/data/h2h.json
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public/data/scorers.json
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public/data/backtest.json
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public/pwa-192x192.png
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public/pwa-512x512.png
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public/favicon.svg
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# Note: public/data/viz/*.json IS committed — it's processed from a fixed
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# historical StatsBomb match, so we don't refetch 3.7MB of events at build time.
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