NilsBriggen
d3e8df96ef
Validated on the strict 2018-2022 window and confirmed on the untouched 2022-2026 test set (RPS 0.1703 vs 0.1721 over 4,448 matches): - the Elo member now blends 30% of a 3x-faster Elo walk, so recent results move ratings much harder - ensemble weight shifts from 75/25 toward Elo to 45/55 toward the time-decayed Team-DC member — the recent-form model now leads - Team-DC refits nightly (and at boot) on the 15-year window plus every finished 2026 match, via a new committed-at-build dcTrain.json (server-only, excluded from the PWA precache) - a recent-form goal multiplier was also tested and did NOT validate; it ships disabled, and backtest.json records the whole decision buildBacktest.ts grew the experiment harness: wider xi/k grids, the fast-Elo and form variants, a pre-registered ship bar (>=0.0005 validation RPS), and a 7-day refit-cadence check. Older ratings.json files still work — all new model fields are optional with golden regression coverage. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
28 lines
749 B
Plaintext
28 lines
749 B
Plaintext
node_modules
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dist
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dev-dist
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server/dist
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server/node_modules
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*.tsbuildinfo
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.DS_Store
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.env
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.env.local
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# local SQLite (dev); prod DB lives on the Docker volume
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/data/cup26.db
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/data/cup26.db-wal
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/data/cup26.db-shm
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# raw data lake (7+ GB StatsBomb corpus etc.) — processed aggregates ship, raw stays local
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/data/lake/
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# Generated build artifacts (reproduced by `npm run data:build`)
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public/data/fixtures.json
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public/data/ratings.json
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public/data/h2h.json
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public/data/scorers.json
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public/data/backtest.json
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public/data/dcTrain.json
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public/pwa-192x192.png
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public/pwa-512x512.png
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public/favicon.svg
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# Note: public/data/viz/*.json IS committed — it's processed from a fixed
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# historical StatsBomb match, so we don't refetch 3.7MB of events at build time.
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