- prediction_snapshots: model + de-vigged market frozen ≤15min pre-kickoff
(or at first sight of a live match, flagged 'late' and excluded from totals).
- src/lib/model/scoring.ts: ONE shared RPS/Brier/log-loss implementation for
the backtest and the live scoreboard.
- /api/scoreboard + /scoreboard page: per-match model-vs-bookmaker bars, RPS
for both after FT, 'closer' badges, running head-to-head with honest rules
printed (small-sample caveat included). Nav: 'vs Market'.
- Methodology page now shows the three-way split + ensemble bake-off variants.
- Verified end-to-end with a simulated match: snapshot froze model 80.7% and
DraftKings 67.0% (de-vig correct), both scored at FT, late-flag honored.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- src/lib/model/teamDc.ts: per-team attack/defence Dixon-Coles via weighted MLE
(Maher iterations), exponential time-decay, shrinkage for thin histories,
learned home multiplier; log-pool of score matrices. 7 vitest cases.
- buildBacktest.ts rewritten as a strict three-way-split bake-off: params
pre-2018, tune (xi, k, w) on 2018-2022 validation, final scores on untouched
2022-2026 test (4,448 matches). Result: ensemble RPS 0.1721 beats Elo-DC
0.1726 and Team-DC 0.1801; ECE stays 0.01. Tuned: xi=0.5 k=5 w=0.75.
- Runtime now IS the backtested model: ratings.json carries teamDc+ensembleW;
matchMatrix() pools both members for predictions, Monte Carlo and advance
probs; ModelEngine re-rating preserves ensemble params; lambdas reported as
matrix expectations (drives in-play).
- scripts/buildSquadValues.ts: Transfermarkt FIWC participants page -> all 48
squad market values (France 1.52bn ... Qatar 20m). Display/availability layer
only — June-2026 values are NOT in the backtested model (would leak).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- docs/V3-GIGA-PLAN.md: the v3 plan (data lake to 7+GB, GIGA ensemble, scoreboard,
UI clarity) with the honest reframe: perfect accuracy = perfect calibration;
'beat the betting sites' = a live public head-to-head, scored with proper rules.
- src/lib/odds.ts: American-ml → decimal, de-vig (normalize away the margin),
overround; 3 vitest cases incl. tonight's real opening lines.
- ESPN core odds adapter (server/src/ingest/espnOdds.ts): captures DraftKings
1X2 moneylines + O/U + spread per fixture; follows $ref pointer items.
- odds_history table (insert-if-changed → clean line-movement history);
scheduler odds sweep every 3h over a 14-day horizon, first sweep at boot;
/api/odds + /api/odds/:num. Odds are a benchmark ONLY — never a model input.
- Boot speed-up: fixture↔event mapping skips dates already fully mapped.
- Verified: 54 fixtures captured with real moneylines locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- src/lib/model/inplay.ts: in-play win probability — remaining goals modelled as
time-scaled Poisson processes convolved with the current score; recomputed each
tick. 4 vitest cases (locks at FT, lead grows decisive over time, sums to 1).
- ESPN summary normalizer extended with the live event timeline (keyEvents);
preview now carries liveStats + events. Scheduler refreshes LIVE matches'
summaries every live tick (~20s) for fresh stats/timeline.
- /match/:num is now a live match center: when live it shows in-play win
probability (driven by the WS score/clock), match stats bars and an event
timeline, polling while live; preview content for scheduled games, recap when
finished. Verified with a simulated live state (94% live vs 81% pre-match).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Persistence via Node's built-in node:sqlite (zero native deps) on a Docker
volume: response cache, source health, fixture↔provider id map, per-fixture
enrichment, ingest log. Runtime bumped to node:24-slim + --experimental-sqlite.
- Resilient fetcher: DB cache + per-source rate-limit + jittered backoff +
circuit-breaker (blocked sources trip + skip; UI reads DB, never breaks).
- ESPN hidden API as the PRIMARY rich source (works from the VPS where SofaScore
403s): scoreboard (live scores w/ clock) + summary (venue, H2H, recent form,
lineups, team stats). football-data / SofaScore are fallbacks.
- Scheduler: maps all 72 group fixtures to ESPN event ids, polls live on a
dynamic cadence, enriches imminent fixtures into match_ext. /api/sources/health.
- Verified: DB populates (real H2H + form for opening matches), 22 tests pass,
Docker image runs node:sqlite on the volume and persists across restart.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NilsBriggen