- src/lib/model/inplay.ts: in-play win probability — remaining goals modelled as
time-scaled Poisson processes convolved with the current score; recomputed each
tick. 4 vitest cases (locks at FT, lead grows decisive over time, sums to 1).
- ESPN summary normalizer extended with the live event timeline (keyEvents);
preview now carries liveStats + events. Scheduler refreshes LIVE matches'
summaries every live tick (~20s) for fresh stats/timeline.
- /match/:num is now a live match center: when live it shows in-play win
probability (driven by the WS score/clock), match stats bars and an event
timeline, polling while live; preview content for scheduled games, recap when
finished. Verified with a simulated live state (94% live vs 81% pre-match).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NilsBriggen
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