NilsBriggen acd8c3e75d v5 model protocol: rolling-origin CV search harness ...

Five two-year walk-forward folds (2014-2024), each with its own
pre-fold parameter fit; selection by mean fold RPS; staged greedy over
Team-DC decay/shrinkage/weight, fast-Elo blend, form multiplier, and
new Elo-walk axes (home advantage, K scale); untouched 2024-26 final
test. Result: the shipped v4 config holds — the staged champion gained
0.0003, under the 0.0005 ship bar, and the final test agrees. v4 is no
longer a one-window result.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-06-12 00:41:37 +02:00

..

buildBacktest.ts

Quick backtest mode for image builds (identical published numbers)

2026-06-12 00:33:42 +02:00

buildFixtures.ts

Phase 1: live dashboard — fixtures, scores, group tables, bracket

2026-06-11 13:04:31 +02:00

buildPreviewData.ts

v2 Phase 2: match previews + team profiles

2026-06-11 15:34:54 +02:00

buildRatings.ts

Recency-weighted v4 model: fast-Elo blend, Team-DC majority, nightly refit

2026-06-11 23:34:18 +02:00

buildSquadValues.ts

v3 Phase B core: Team-DC + backtested ensemble, squad values

2026-06-11 17:23:51 +02:00

buildStatsbombViz.ts

Phase 3: data-story viz — StatsBomb shot map, xG race, pass networks

2026-06-11 13:34:19 +02:00

cvSearch.ts

v5 model protocol: rolling-origin CV search harness

2026-06-12 00:41:37 +02:00

make-icons.mjs

Phase 0: scaffold cup26 — Vite+React+Fastify TS PWA, broadcast theme, app shell

2026-06-11 12:49:13 +02:00

processStatsbomb.ts

v3: the lake processed + /data page + glossary terms

2026-06-11 17:41:43 +02:00