NilsBriggen
d887664fce
- docs/V3-GIGA-PLAN.md: the v3 plan (data lake to 7+GB, GIGA ensemble, scoreboard, UI clarity) with the honest reframe: perfect accuracy = perfect calibration; 'beat the betting sites' = a live public head-to-head, scored with proper rules. - src/lib/odds.ts: American-ml → decimal, de-vig (normalize away the margin), overround; 3 vitest cases incl. tonight's real opening lines. - ESPN core odds adapter (server/src/ingest/espnOdds.ts): captures DraftKings 1X2 moneylines + O/U + spread per fixture; follows $ref pointer items. - odds_history table (insert-if-changed → clean line-movement history); scheduler odds sweep every 3h over a 14-day horizon, first sweep at boot; /api/odds + /api/odds/:num. Odds are a benchmark ONLY — never a model input. - Boot speed-up: fixture↔event mapping skips dates already fully mapped. - Verified: 54 fixtures captured with real moneylines locally. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
29 lines
1.0 KiB
TypeScript
29 lines
1.0 KiB
TypeScript
import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest';
|
|
import { americanToDecimal, deVig, overround } from './odds';
|
|
|
|
describe('americanToDecimal', () => {
|
|
it('converts favourites and underdogs', () => {
|
|
expect(americanToDecimal(-235)).toBeCloseTo(1.4255, 3);
|
|
expect(americanToDecimal(340)).toBeCloseTo(4.4, 3);
|
|
expect(americanToDecimal(100)).toBeCloseTo(2.0, 6);
|
|
expect(americanToDecimal(-100)).toBeCloseTo(2.0, 6);
|
|
});
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
describe('deVig', () => {
|
|
it('produces probabilities that sum to 1 with the margin removed', () => {
|
|
// tonight's real opening-match lines: Mexico -235 / draw +340 / SA +750
|
|
const p = deVig(-235, 340, 750)!;
|
|
expect(p.home + p.draw + p.away).toBeCloseTo(1, 9);
|
|
expect(p.home).toBeGreaterThan(0.6); // heavy favourite
|
|
expect(p.away).toBeLessThan(0.15);
|
|
// raw implied sum exceeds 1 (the vig)
|
|
expect(overround(-235, 340, 750)).toBeGreaterThan(1);
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
it('returns null on missing lines', () => {
|
|
expect(deVig(null, 340, 750)).toBeNull();
|
|
expect(deVig(-235, 0, 750)).toBeNull();
|
|
});
|
|
});
|