NilsBriggen
d3e8df96ef
Validated on the strict 2018-2022 window and confirmed on the untouched 2022-2026 test set (RPS 0.1703 vs 0.1721 over 4,448 matches): - the Elo member now blends 30% of a 3x-faster Elo walk, so recent results move ratings much harder - ensemble weight shifts from 75/25 toward Elo to 45/55 toward the time-decayed Team-DC member — the recent-form model now leads - Team-DC refits nightly (and at boot) on the 15-year window plus every finished 2026 match, via a new committed-at-build dcTrain.json (server-only, excluded from the PWA precache) - a recent-form goal multiplier was also tested and did NOT validate; it ships disabled, and backtest.json records the whole decision buildBacktest.ts grew the experiment harness: wider xi/k grids, the fast-Elo and form variants, a pre-registered ship bar (>=0.0005 validation RPS), and a 7-day refit-cadence check. Older ratings.json files still work — all new model fields are optional with golden regression coverage. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
52 lines
2.2 KiB
TypeScript
52 lines
2.2 KiB
TypeScript
// Pure helpers for the nightly in-tournament Team-DC refit (no fs/db imports,
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// so vitest can load them). The training base comes from dcTrain.json — compact
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// [date, home, away, hs, as, neutral01] rows with absolute dates — plus every
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// finished World Cup fixture so far.
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import { hostAdvantage } from '../../src/lib/model/hosts';
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import type { DcMatch } from '../../src/lib/model/teamDc';
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import type { Fixture } from '../../src/lib/types';
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export type DcRow = [string, string, string, number, number, number];
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const DAY = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
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/** Build the refit training set, with daysAgo relative to the newest match in
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* the combined data. Host-nation fixtures are oriented so the host is the
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* DC home side (the CSV convention for non-neutral rows). */
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export function refitTrainingSet(
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base: { asOf: string; rows: DcRow[] },
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finished: Fixture[],
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homeAdvElo: number,
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windowYears = 15,
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): { train: DcMatch[]; asOf: string } {
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let asOf = base.asOf;
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const extra: { date: string; home: string; away: string; hs: number; as: number; neutral: boolean }[] = [];
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for (const f of finished) {
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if (!f.home.team || !f.away.team || f.homeScore == null || f.awayScore == null) continue;
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const date = f.kickoff.slice(0, 10);
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if (date > asOf) asOf = date;
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const adv = hostAdvantage(f.home.team, f.away.team, f.venue, homeAdvElo);
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if (adv < 0) {
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extra.push({ date, home: f.away.team, away: f.home.team, hs: f.awayScore, as: f.homeScore, neutral: false });
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} else {
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extra.push({ date, home: f.home.team, away: f.away.team, hs: f.homeScore, as: f.awayScore, neutral: adv === 0 });
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}
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}
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const nowT = new Date(asOf).getTime();
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const windowMs = windowYears * 365 * DAY;
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const train: DcMatch[] = [];
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for (const [date, home, away, hs, as, neutral] of base.rows) {
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const t = new Date(date).getTime();
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if (nowT - t > windowMs) continue;
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train.push({ daysAgo: (nowT - t) / DAY, home, away, homeGoals: hs, awayGoals: as, neutral: neutral === 1 });
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}
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for (const m of extra) {
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train.push({
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daysAgo: (nowT - new Date(m.date).getTime()) / DAY,
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home: m.home, away: m.away, homeGoals: m.hs, awayGoals: m.as, neutral: m.neutral,
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});
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}
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return { train, asOf };
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}
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