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Once a group reaches its closing stretch (≤3 open matches), every remaining win/draw/loss combination is enumerated and ranked with the real tiebreaker logic. Under each table: Top 2 secured / Top 2 with a win / Still possible (n of N outcomes) / Can't reach the top 2 — with an honest footnote that tight cases hinge on goal difference and third place runs through the cross-group best-thirds race. Pure, tested enumeration in src/lib/scenarios.ts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>