2 Commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
NilsBriggen	f3b2a69b31	v3 Phase B core: Team-DC + backtested ensemble, squad values ... - src/lib/model/teamDc.ts: per-team attack/defence Dixon-Coles via weighted MLE (Maher iterations), exponential time-decay, shrinkage for thin histories, learned home multiplier; log-pool of score matrices. 7 vitest cases. - buildBacktest.ts rewritten as a strict three-way-split bake-off: params pre-2018, tune (xi, k, w) on 2018-2022 validation, final scores on untouched 2022-2026 test (4,448 matches). Result: ensemble RPS 0.1721 beats Elo-DC 0.1726 and Team-DC 0.1801; ECE stays 0.01. Tuned: xi=0.5 k=5 w=0.75. - Runtime now IS the backtested model: ratings.json carries teamDc+ensembleW; matchMatrix() pools both members for predictions, Monte Carlo and advance probs; ModelEngine re-rating preserves ensemble params; lambdas reported as matrix expectations (drives in-play). - scripts/buildSquadValues.ts: Transfermarkt FIWC participants page -> all 48 squad market values (France 1.52bn ... Qatar 20m). Display/availability layer only — June-2026 values are NOT in the backtested model (would leak). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-11 17:23:51 +02:00
NilsBriggen	d604bb14ff	Phase 2: predictive model — Elo + Dixon-Coles + Monte Carlo ... - buildRatings.ts: walks 49k historical results → World-Football-Elo per team, data-calibrated goals model (goals-per-Elo slope, mean goals) + MLE-fit Dixon-Coles rho. Top: Spain/Argentina/France (the real 2026 favourites) - src/lib/model: elo, poisson/dixon-coles, predict, host-advantage, monteCarlo (full 48-team sim — group sampling, best-third bipartite allocation, knockout advance probs). 20 vitest cases incl. exact per-round count invariants - Server ModelEngine: live Elo re-rating after each result, per-match W/D/L, 20k-sim odds, odds-over-time history; broadcast on finished-result changes - Client: championship board, heat-shaded odds table, lazy-loaded title-race chart (Recharts split to its own chunk), match-prediction bars, bracket advance overlay - Verified: odds render, chart populates as injected results re-rate teams live Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-11 13:25:53 +02:00