- scripts/processStatsbomb.ts: one pass over the 17GB StatsBomb lake (4,235
matches) -> lakestats.json (12.82GB events / 14.9M events / 6,919 players),
scorestate.json (goal-rate multipliers by game state — shipped as an insight,
NOT wired into in-play: the raw effect is selection-biased toward stronger
teams and would distort a calibrated model), fingerprints.json (40/48 nations'
shots/xG/set-piece share from real event data). Artifacts committed; raw lake
stays local (gitignored).
- /data page + /api/data/stats: the gigabytes made visible — lake counters,
historical archive, live-collection counts (odds lines, frozen forecasts,
enrichment), per-source health with freshness. Footer links.
- Term component: plain-language glossary tooltips (RPS, Brier, ECE, Elo, xG,
de-vig, ensemble) attached where metrics appear.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- prediction_snapshots: model + de-vigged market frozen ≤15min pre-kickoff
(or at first sight of a live match, flagged 'late' and excluded from totals).
- src/lib/model/scoring.ts: ONE shared RPS/Brier/log-loss implementation for
the backtest and the live scoreboard.
- /api/scoreboard + /scoreboard page: per-match model-vs-bookmaker bars, RPS
for both after FT, 'closer' badges, running head-to-head with honest rules
printed (small-sample caveat included). Nav: 'vs Market'.
- Methodology page now shows the three-way split + ensemble bake-off variants.
- Verified end-to-end with a simulated match: snapshot froze model 80.7% and
DraftKings 67.0% (de-vig correct), both scored at FT, late-flag honored.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NilsBriggen