NilsBriggen/cup26
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dd8156376dd1d050a55bc45a76734d654a23f3d9
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Author SHA1 Message Date
NilsBriggen dd8156376d Phase 3: data-story viz — StatsBomb shot map, xG race, pass networks 
- buildStatsbombViz.ts: processes the 2022 WC Final (Argentina 3-3 France) from
  StatsBomb open data → shots+xG, cumulative xG race, starting-XI pass networks,
  totals, shootout result. Output committed (11KB) to avoid build-time fetch
- Custom SVG viz (no chart lib): reusable Pitch (StatsBomb 120x80 coords),
  ShotMap (xG-sized dots, teams attacking opposite goals), XgRace (stepped
  cumulative xG with goal markers, d3-scale), PassNetwork (nodes ∝ involvement,
  links ∝ pass volume)
- StoryPage: narrative with hero scoreline, by-the-numbers bars, and the three
  visualizations with explanatory copy
- Verified in browser: all three render correctly, no console errors

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-06-11 13:34:19 +02:00
NilsBriggen d604bb14ff Phase 2: predictive model — Elo + Dixon-Coles + Monte Carlo 
- buildRatings.ts: walks 49k historical results → World-Football-Elo per team,
  data-calibrated goals model (goals-per-Elo slope, mean goals) + MLE-fit
  Dixon-Coles rho. Top: Spain/Argentina/France (the real 2026 favourites)
- src/lib/model: elo, poisson/dixon-coles, predict, host-advantage, monteCarlo
  (full 48-team sim — group sampling, best-third bipartite allocation, knockout
  advance probs). 20 vitest cases incl. exact per-round count invariants
- Server ModelEngine: live Elo re-rating after each result, per-match W/D/L,
  20k-sim odds, odds-over-time history; broadcast on finished-result changes
- Client: championship board, heat-shaded odds table, lazy-loaded title-race
  chart (Recharts split to its own chunk), match-prediction bars, bracket
  advance overlay
- Verified: odds render, chart populates as injected results re-rate teams live

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-06-11 13:25:53 +02:00
NilsBriggen 9a31e9f4db Phase 1: live dashboard — fixtures, scores, group tables, bracket 
- Shared domain model (types, team metadata/flags/aliases, FIFA-tiebreak standings)
- buildFixtures.ts: openfootball 2026 → normalized fixtures.json (104 matches,
  ISO-UTC kickoffs, pretty knockout placeholders)
- Fastify live layer: seed load, football-data.org poller + SofaScore enhancement
  (feature-flagged, fallback), dynamic live-window polling, WS snapshot push,
  REST /api/snapshot, dev /api/dev/score injection
- Client: tournament store (REST + WS + static-file fallback), MatchCard,
  TeamLabel, GroupTable, Live/Groups/Bracket pages, live connection indicator
- Verified: WS pushes a dev-injected result; standings recompute live in-browser

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-06-11 13:04:31 +02:00