Validated on the strict 2018-2022 window and confirmed on the untouched
2022-2026 test set (RPS 0.1703 vs 0.1721 over 4,448 matches):
- the Elo member now blends 30% of a 3x-faster Elo walk, so recent
results move ratings much harder
- ensemble weight shifts from 75/25 toward Elo to 45/55 toward the
time-decayed Team-DC member — the recent-form model now leads
- Team-DC refits nightly (and at boot) on the 15-year window plus every
finished 2026 match, via a new committed-at-build dcTrain.json
(server-only, excluded from the PWA precache)
- a recent-form goal multiplier was also tested and did NOT validate;
it ships disabled, and backtest.json records the whole decision
buildBacktest.ts grew the experiment harness: wider xi/k grids, the
fast-Elo and form variants, a pre-registered ship bar (>=0.0005
validation RPS), and a 7-day refit-cadence check. Older ratings.json
files still work — all new model fields are optional with golden
regression coverage.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The live staleness bug: liveTick refetched ESPN summaries every 20s but
the cache TTL was 5 minutes, so in-play stats/timeline barely moved.
Summaries now take a live flag (15s TTL in play), the scoreboard TTL
drops 20s->5s, and polling gets three tiers (8s in-play / 20s near
kickoff / 10m idle) via a pure, tested cadence module. The
football-data fallback is throttled to one attempt per 15s so the 8s
cadence can never breach its 10 req/min cap. Enrichment runs every 5m
(was 20m); client refetch intervals tighten to 10s (live match page)
and 30s (scoreboard).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- scripts/processStatsbomb.ts: one pass over the 17GB StatsBomb lake (4,235
matches) -> lakestats.json (12.82GB events / 14.9M events / 6,919 players),
scorestate.json (goal-rate multipliers by game state — shipped as an insight,
NOT wired into in-play: the raw effect is selection-biased toward stronger
teams and would distort a calibrated model), fingerprints.json (40/48 nations'
shots/xG/set-piece share from real event data). Artifacts committed; raw lake
stays local (gitignored).
- /data page + /api/data/stats: the gigabytes made visible — lake counters,
historical archive, live-collection counts (odds lines, frozen forecasts,
enrichment), per-source health with freshness. Footer links.
- Term component: plain-language glossary tooltips (RPS, Brier, ECE, Elo, xG,
de-vig, ensemble) attached where metrics appear.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- prediction_snapshots: model + de-vigged market frozen ≤15min pre-kickoff
(or at first sight of a live match, flagged 'late' and excluded from totals).
- src/lib/model/scoring.ts: ONE shared RPS/Brier/log-loss implementation for
the backtest and the live scoreboard.
- /api/scoreboard + /scoreboard page: per-match model-vs-bookmaker bars, RPS
for both after FT, 'closer' badges, running head-to-head with honest rules
printed (small-sample caveat included). Nav: 'vs Market'.
- Methodology page now shows the three-way split + ensemble bake-off variants.
- Verified end-to-end with a simulated match: snapshot froze model 80.7% and
DraftKings 67.0% (de-vig correct), both scored at FT, late-flag honored.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- src/lib/model/teamDc.ts: per-team attack/defence Dixon-Coles via weighted MLE
(Maher iterations), exponential time-decay, shrinkage for thin histories,
learned home multiplier; log-pool of score matrices. 7 vitest cases.
- buildBacktest.ts rewritten as a strict three-way-split bake-off: params
pre-2018, tune (xi, k, w) on 2018-2022 validation, final scores on untouched
2022-2026 test (4,448 matches). Result: ensemble RPS 0.1721 beats Elo-DC
0.1726 and Team-DC 0.1801; ECE stays 0.01. Tuned: xi=0.5 k=5 w=0.75.
- Runtime now IS the backtested model: ratings.json carries teamDc+ensembleW;
matchMatrix() pools both members for predictions, Monte Carlo and advance
probs; ModelEngine re-rating preserves ensemble params; lambdas reported as
matrix expectations (drives in-play).
- scripts/buildSquadValues.ts: Transfermarkt FIWC participants page -> all 48
squad market values (France 1.52bn ... Qatar 20m). Display/availability layer
only — June-2026 values are NOT in the backtested model (would leak).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- docs/V3-GIGA-PLAN.md: the v3 plan (data lake to 7+GB, GIGA ensemble, scoreboard,
UI clarity) with the honest reframe: perfect accuracy = perfect calibration;
'beat the betting sites' = a live public head-to-head, scored with proper rules.
- src/lib/odds.ts: American-ml → decimal, de-vig (normalize away the margin),
overround; 3 vitest cases incl. tonight's real opening lines.
- ESPN core odds adapter (server/src/ingest/espnOdds.ts): captures DraftKings
1X2 moneylines + O/U + spread per fixture; follows $ref pointer items.
- odds_history table (insert-if-changed → clean line-movement history);
scheduler odds sweep every 3h over a 14-day horizon, first sweep at boot;
/api/odds + /api/odds/:num. Odds are a benchmark ONLY — never a model input.
- Boot speed-up: fixture↔event mapping skips dates already fully mapped.
- Verified: 54 fixtures captured with real moneylines locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- src/lib/model/inplay.ts: in-play win probability — remaining goals modelled as
time-scaled Poisson processes convolved with the current score; recomputed each
tick. 4 vitest cases (locks at FT, lead grows decisive over time, sums to 1).
- ESPN summary normalizer extended with the live event timeline (keyEvents);
preview now carries liveStats + events. Scheduler refreshes LIVE matches'
summaries every live tick (~20s) for fresh stats/timeline.
- /match/:num is now a live match center: when live it shows in-play win
probability (driven by the WS score/clock), match stats bars and an event
timeline, polling while live; preview content for scheduled games, recap when
finished. Verified with a simulated live state (94% live vs 81% pre-match).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Persistence via Node's built-in node:sqlite (zero native deps) on a Docker
volume: response cache, source health, fixture↔provider id map, per-fixture
enrichment, ingest log. Runtime bumped to node:24-slim + --experimental-sqlite.
- Resilient fetcher: DB cache + per-source rate-limit + jittered backoff +
circuit-breaker (blocked sources trip + skip; UI reads DB, never breaks).
- ESPN hidden API as the PRIMARY rich source (works from the VPS where SofaScore
403s): scoreboard (live scores w/ clock) + summary (venue, H2H, recent form,
lineups, team stats). football-data / SofaScore are fallbacks.
- Scheduler: maps all 72 group fixtures to ESPN event ids, polls live on a
dynamic cadence, enriches imminent fixtures into match_ext. /api/sources/health.
- Verified: DB populates (real H2H + form for opening matches), 22 tests pass,
Docker image runs node:sqlite on the volume and persists across restart.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NilsBriggen