NilsBriggen
acd8c3e75d
v5 model protocol: rolling-origin CV search harness
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Five two-year walk-forward folds (2014-2024), each with its own
pre-fold parameter fit; selection by mean fold RPS; staged greedy over
Team-DC decay/shrinkage/weight, fast-Elo blend, form multiplier, and
new Elo-walk axes (home advantage, K scale); untouched 2024-26 final
test. Result: the shipped v4 config holds — the staged champion gained
0.0003, under the 0.0005 ship bar, and the final test agrees. v4 is no
longer a one-window result.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-06-12 00:41:37 +02:00
NilsBriggen
7f4838d032
v2 Phase 2: match previews + team profiles
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- buildPreviewData.ts: precomputes from 150y of results → h2h.json (825 WC-team
pairings, full records + recent meetings) + scorers.json (top-10 all-time
scorers per team). Committed goalscorers.csv.
- server/src/preview.ts: assembles MatchPreview / TeamProfile from three layers —
historical (h2h, scorers), DB enrichment (ESPN form/lineups/venue), live model
(W/D/L, xG, odds, Elo). /api/preview/:num + /api/team/:name.
- Client: rich /match/:num page (model expectation, recent form chips, H2H record
+ recent meetings, lineups-or-key-players) and /team/:name profile (Elo, odds,
standing, fixtures, all-time scorers). Match cards now link to previews;
cross-linking between matches and teams.
- Verified: Mexico-SA preview (81% W, 2-0, form, H2H 2-1-1, Borgetti 37) and
Argentina profile (Messi 63) render; 22 tests pass; build clean.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-06-11 15:34:54 +02:00
NilsBriggen
4e4e75a1d8
Phase 0: scaffold cup26 — Vite+React+Fastify TS PWA, broadcast theme, app shell
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Mirrors the TTRPG stack (strict TS, Tailwind 4, vite-plugin-pwa, esbuild server
bundle, multi-stage Dockerfile, Traefik compose). Floodlit-pitch design tokens,
UI primitives (Button/Card/Badge), TanStack Router shell with Live/Groups/
Bracket/Predict/Story routes (placeholders), dependency-free PWA icon generator.
Raw data staged: openfootball 2026 fixtures + martj42 international results CSV.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-06-11 12:49:13 +02:00
NilsBriggen