'X is shown the red card' explains nothing. ESPN's summary carries the
full post-match report (Reuters-style narrative) that we fetched and
discarded — it has exactly the missing why ('red-carded for bringing
down Gutierrez just outside the box').
- normalizer keeps the report (headline + plain-text story, schema v4;
boot backfill re-stores played matches automatically)
- expanding an event surfaces the report sentences about that player,
scored by event vocabulary so a player's sending-off sentence beats
his goal mention; attribution line marks the source
- the raw no-reason fallback line is suppressed once the report
explains a booking; xG/momentum/VAR layers stay underneath
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The buildup timeline mostly surfaced unrelated events (a substitution
before a goal explains nothing). Replaced with the sources that
actually describe the event:
- goals match to their captured shot: situation (corner / counter /
set piece / penalty), distance to goal, xG as a plain-language
chance percentage, and xGOT for the finish quality
- the attack-momentum curve judges whether the goal came with or
against the run of play (prior five minutes, only when clear-cut)
- VAR / video-review feed lines still surface on the matching event —
the one slice of play-by-play that genuinely explains a decision
- the feed's action description stays as the de-emphasized last line,
with the redundant scorer prefix stripped; booking reasons unchanged
- name matching shared from the lineup pitch (diacritic/order-proof),
with a unique same-side-and-minute fallback
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Finished matches show the STARTING XIs on the pitch (red markers with
the minute on everyone subbed off) with 'Subbed on' / 'Subbed off'
lists below, minutes and ratings included; live matches keep the
current-XI view that swaps substitutes in
- Title-race chart gets a sort toggle, defaulting to 'Biggest movers'
(the teams whose odds changed most at the latest update — what's
relevant now) with 'Title favorites' as the alternative
- Entering what-if on the bracket now pre-fills the model's most likely
tournament: group slots seeded from win-group/advance odds (best-
thirds assigned to their allowed slots via backtracking), every
pairing picked by the model — a complete overview to edit by tapping;
Reset returns to the projection
- Team fixtures drop the US 'vs/@' convention: always 'vs' plus an H/A
badge with a tooltip
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
'X is shown a red card' alone isn't insight — the story is in the
surrounding plays. The ESPN summary carries a ~110-line play-by-play
feed (attempts, fouls, corners, VAR checks) we cached but never used:
- normalizer keeps a trimmed commentary list (schema v3; the boot
backfill re-stores older matches automatically)
- previews serve it; expanding a timeline event now shows up to four
feed lines from the three minutes leading in, then the event's own
description — e.g. Korea's saved attempt and corner right before
Czechia's counter-goal header, or the foul behind a booking
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Goals and bookings on the match timeline now expand on tap/click (or
Enter/Space) to show what actually happened, parsed from the live
feed's commentary: the shot description for goals ('header from very
close range to the bottom right corner…') and the reason for cards
('For a bad foul.'). A chevron marks expandable rows; substitutions
and neutral rows carry nothing extra so they stay inert. Works on both
the center-spine and the mobile rail layouts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Coming-up cards and the post-match comparison now use the model's most
likely score ('2-0') instead of decimal goal expectations ('2.3-0.4');
the pre-match model card keeps just the honesty note since the bar's
chip already carries the predicted scoreline.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Scheduler now captures FotMob details for fixtures inside 48h, so the
projected XIs exist before kickoff; the Lineups tab shows the pitch
pre-match under a 'Predicted lineups' header with an honest note
(official lineups ~1h before kickoff), switching to the confirmed
view at kickoff
- Finished matches get their forecast back: the preview falls back to
the prediction frozen <=15min before kickoff (the scoreboard's
no-hindsight snapshot), with the most-likely-score chip rebuilt from
the frozen expected goals; the model card now reads 'Model's
pre-match expected goals: 1.60 - 1.02 · final score 2-1', and the
market-movement chart returns to finished matches too
- Upcoming match cards append the model's expected goals to the hint:
'Model: Brazil 64% · 1.3-0.9 goals'
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The chart looked broken because its data was: history lived in memory,
so every deploy wiped it (yesterday's points were gone), and each boot
plus the +5min refit appended a fresh point labeled with the same last
result — leaving two identical flat segments on an index axis.
- model_history table: every diary point persists with the finished-
result signature it was computed from; restored at boot
- points only append when the finished set actually changes — refit
and boot recomputes update the snapshot without spamming the diary
- one-time rebuild when nothing is persisted: replay finished results
in kickoff order, re-running the sim after each with later results
masked, so the historical points are recreated faithfully
- chart x-axis shows localized dates instead of raw indices
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The to-scale pitch was the problem: eleven rows of dots, names and
chips can't fit 105x68 proportions. Now:
- canvas stretched both ways (84x132) like every lineup UI
- rows re-spread evenly per team (keeper pinned at the goal, outfield
spans the half) instead of FotMob's bunched raw coordinates
- rating chips point toward the pitch center and are sized so two
facing chips across the halfway column can never touch; sub markers
point outward so nothing clips the touchlines
- keeper names sit beside the dot — their row is always alone, and the
name was colliding with the back line either side of the goal
- goal badge moved onto the dot rim on the marker side
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- LineupPitch: both XIs on a vertical pitch at FotMob's per-player
formation coordinates — shirt numbers, live ratings, goal badges,
formation + coach labels. Substitutes take over the outgoing player's
slot (paired through ESPN's 'X replaces Y' commentary with a unique
same-minute fallback — the sources romanize names differently), with
a subbed-off strip below; the page's live refetch keeps it current
through the match. Falls back to the list view (and hides predicted
pre-kickoff XIs) when no confirmed lineup is captured.
- /api/match-rich now serves the trimmed FotMob lineup (only complete,
fully-positioned XIs)
- Fix: vs-Market label box was too narrow — the probability bar covered
the end of 'DraftKings'
- Timeline spine no longer runs past the kick-off/full-time pills
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Design handoff steps 4-5:
- LivePage: headline live-match hero (gradient card, live ring, smallcaps
stage/venue + minute, big mono score, 3-segment in-play win-prob bar);
favorite team's live match takes the hero slot
- MatchCard: played matches as stacked team rows with the beaten side
dimmed; scheduled matches as a centered 'vs' pairing (model hint and
venue stay)
- GroupTable: Form column — tiny W/D/L bars (accent/gold/loss) computed
from finished group matches
- BracketPage: one round-selector layout on every screen size (cards in
a 2-col grid, losers dimmed), gold 'Projected champion' banner on the
Final view; what-if mode, advance bars, R32 and the third-place
play-off all unchanged
- Predict title race: leader bar, rank and percentage in gold
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements steps 1-3 of the Claude Design handoff:
- MatchTimeline: vertical center spine (home left, away right, minute
pills on the rail), goal cards with parsed scorer/assist/running
score, sub and booking chips, synthetic kick-off/half-time/full-time
dividers; single left rail under the sm breakpoint
- matchEvents: pure ESPN commentary parser (scorer, assist, penalty,
own goal, sub in/out, embedded score) with tests on real feed shapes
- Hero scoreboard: panel gradient + accent glow, smallcaps meta, mono
score, stat chips (xG / POTM / attendance / referee; possession and
shots while live); weather line stays for upcoming matches
- Sticky Summary/Timeline/Stats/Lineups sub-nav; all existing cards
re-bucketed with no feature loss (in-play win prob, swing chart,
xG race, shot map, momentum, odds movement, form, H2H, lineups)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The captured FotMob/FIFA/Open-Meteo data becomes visible. Match pages
now carry: a cumulative xG race with goal dots and team totals, a full-
pitch shot map (each side attacking its own end, dots sized by xG,
goals filled), the 90-minute attack-momentum chart, player-of-the-match
with rating, the official info line (stadium · attendance · referee),
and a kickoff-hour weather line for upcoming matches with an altitude
chip above 1,000m. All hand-rolled SVG on the existing token
conventions — design-ready for the upcoming visual overhaul. EN/DE
included, with an honest 'xG and ratings are FotMob estimates' note.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
GET /api/match-rich/:num projects the captured provider data for the
match center: every shot with pitch coords and xG oriented to
home/away (FotMob payloads now carry team ids, v2 + settle-versioned
refetch), team xG sums, the momentum curve, player of the match with
rating, FIFA's official attendance/stadium/referee, and kickoff-hour
weather. Verified on real data: South Korea 2.31-0.83 Czechia on 22
oriented shots, POTM Hwang 8.9, referee Amin Mohamed Omar.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The first heal attempt missed both matches: a 02:00 UTC kickoff files
under the PREVIOUS day in ESPN's ?dates= param (ET-based), and the
backfill skipped today's UTC date entirely. Now any started-but-
forgotten fixture triggers fetches for its UTC date and the day
before, covering the ET offset in both directions.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The persistence table shipped empty just as ESPN's default scoreboard
window rolled past matchday 1 — prod forgot both results. Rather than
patching the DB by hand, boot now re-fetches the date-scoped
scoreboard for any past day whose fixtures still look scheduled and
merges + persists the results. Heals fresh databases and any future
data loss the same way.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Four new feeds, all verified against real tournament matches:
- FotMob (unofficial, works from the VPS again): per-shot xG/xGOT with
pitch coords, team xG, player ratings, POTM, momentum, attacking
zones — trimmed payloads (~87KB/match) on a gentle 90s-live/30m-idle
cadence. Capture-first: this source could lock again any day.
- FIFA official v3: confirmed lineups with player IDs, typed XY event
timelines (80 events for the opener), attendance + named referees,
tactics — id-mapped via the calendar, hot while live.
- Open-Meteo: kickoff-hour weather per venue from a build-time geocoded
venues.json (with elevation — Azteca 2,240m); fetched in the enrich
loop inside the 48h horizon.
- DraftKings scorer props (first/last/anytime goalscorer per athlete)
via ESPN's core propBets, insert-if-changed line history, athlete
names resolved through a 30-day cache.
Also fixes a real resilience gap found along the way: fixture results
now persist in SQLite and restore at boot — previously a restart after
ESPN's scoreboard window moved on would silently forget a match day
(standings, model and scoreboard would all regress).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Six-source reconnaissance from both vantage points found the v3-era
blockers gone: FotMob serves full xG/shotmaps/player-ratings from the
VPS with no signed header, and FIFA's official v3 API (lineups with
player IDs + headshots, XY timelines, attendance) is open too. The
plan: capture-first ingestion (FotMob/FIFA/ESPN-deep/weather), four
CV-gated model experiments (xG-informed Team-DC, lineup-aware refresh,
bias-corrected in-play, a scorer model benchmarked against DraftKings
props), and a feature tier built on it — with explicit design-handoff
slots for the visual overhaul arriving from Claude Design.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A restart during a live match sat behind the multi-minute odds sweep
before the first scoreboard poll. The live loop now starts immediately
after fixture mapping; odds/backfill/enrich follow on their own
rate-limit keys.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
All twelve third-placed teams ranked by points/GD/goals under the
group grid — top 8 highlighted (they reach the Round of 32), the rest
dimmed. Appears once group play has started.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The boot refit fires before live state is restored, so restarts lost
this tournament's matches from the fit until the nightly timer. A
one-shot follow-up at +5 minutes closes the gap.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Fully progressive: without VAPID keys in the environment the API says
404, the bell never renders, and the service worker addition (a push
handler via workbox importScripts — no SW strategy change) is inert.
With keys: a bell on each team page requests permission, subscribes
(one team per device) and the server diffs fixture states on every
broadcast to push Kickoff / Goal / Full time to that team's followers.
Dead endpoints (404/410) self-clean. Round-trip verified locally with
dev VAPID keys; disabled mode verified too.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
ESPN's keyEvents carry participants[].athlete for goals — no text
parsing needed. The normalizer now extracts scorer/scoring/shootout
(payload versioned, with a boot backfill that re-stores summaries
saved by the old normalizer), /api/goldenboot aggregates per-player
goals (own goals and shootout kicks excluded), and the Teams page
leads with the top-10 race. Verified against tonight's real goals.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Story, Methodology, Data and Compare load as their own chunks via
lazyRouteComponent (prefetched on intent) — the main bundle drops ~10%
and hot paths (Live, match, team) stay eager.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The model/market split stays readable when the numeric triple is
hidden on narrow screens (title + aria-label on the bar row).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Crawler-visible <title> + og:title/description are injected into the
SPA shell server-side: match links carry the score or the model's
probability split, team links the current title odds — honest framing
included. Plain shell for every other route.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The previous commit referenced a non-existent generatedAt and slipped
past a grep-based gate (grep exit 0 on finding the error). Build gate
checked by exit code from here on.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
When the live connection drops, a slim notice under the header shows
the timestamp of the last snapshot — the page keeps working from it.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The Methodology page lists each recompute (the finished match that
triggered it) with the biggest title-odds move it caused — the model's
thinking made visible, feeding the openness story.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
/compare (also in the mobile More sheet): pick any two of the 48 —
defaults to the top title favourites — and get the model's
neutral-ground matchup plus the full head-to-head from the historical
archive (wins/draws/goals and the last six meetings).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A compact card up top: yesterday's scores at a glance and the teams
whose championship odds moved most over the last day (from the model's
recompute history), with up/down trends linking through to team pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A keyboard-first palette (plus a header button) that jumps to any team
page or match page — arrow keys, enter, esc; flags and kickoff days in
the results. Pure client, searches the snapshot already in memory.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
buildRatings samples each WC team's rating along the full walk (yearly
historically, monthly since 2022) into elohistory.json (~72KB, 48
teams). Team pages plot it as a clean SVG line with year and rating
gridlines — Germany's century, 1908 → today, in one glance.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The scoreboard gains a Biggest surprises card — finished matches whose
actual outcome the frozen model priced under 30%, sorted by shock
value, each linking to its match page. Pure client derivation from
data the scoreboard already had.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The CV harness gained a calibration experiment: per-outcome isotonic
maps (pool-adjacent-violators) fit walk-forward on the five folds and
judged leave-one-fold-out against a pre-registered bar. It cleared it:
LOFO ECE improves 16% (0.0146 → 0.0122) with RPS slightly better too
(0.1724 → 0.1722). The final maps (fit on all folds) are committed as
a research artifact, embedded into ratings.json by buildRatings when
the shipped config matches, and applied in matchMatrix by scaling the
score-matrix outcome regions — scorelines, Monte Carlo and displayed
probabilities all stay mutually consistent. Without the field, output
is bit-identical (golden tests).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Once a group reaches its closing stretch (≤3 open matches), every
remaining win/draw/loss combination is enumerated and ranked with the
real tiebreaker logic. Under each table: Top 2 secured / Top 2 with a
win / Still possible (n of N outcomes) / Can't reach the top 2 — with
an honest footnote that tight cases hinge on goal difference and third
place runs through the cross-group best-thirds race. Pure, tested
enumeration in src/lib/scenarios.ts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A star on the team page (localStorage, no accounts) pins that team's
next or running match in a My team section at the top of the Live tab.
EN/DE strings + aria-pressed on the toggle.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
A wand toggle turns the bracket interactive: tap a side to send that
team through; W/L placeholders resolve down the tree (pure, tested
logic in src/lib/whatif.ts). Real results always override picks; picks
that stop making sense after an upstream change are pruned. Each open
pairing shows the model's advance probability (ratings.json fetched
lazily), and once your final resolves, a summary banner names your
champion with the model's chance of exactly that run. EN/DE included.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The odds history we have been capturing every 3h finally gets a face:
de-vigged DraftKings probabilities drift as solid lines toward
kickoff, with the model's numbers as dashed references — the honest
benchmark framing, right on the match page. Renders only when at least
two pre-kickoff lines exist. EN/DE copy included.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
While a match runs, every poll records the in-play model probability
per game state (insert-if-new on minute+score) into inplay_history.
The match page draws it as a stacked area chart — home fills from the
bottom, away from the top, the gap is the draw — with minute ticks and
a 50% guide. Shows live (under the win-probability bar) and after full
time as its own card. EN/DE strings included.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Five two-year walk-forward folds (2014-2024), each with its own
pre-fold parameter fit; selection by mean fold RPS; staged greedy over
Team-DC decay/shrinkage/weight, fast-Elo blend, form multiplier, and
new Elo-walk axes (home advantage, K scale); untouched 2024-26 final
test. Result: the shipped v4 config holds — the staged champion gained
0.0003, under the 0.0005 ship bar, and the final test agrees. v4 is no
longer a one-window result.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The first prod snapshot landed as a 0-byte file with a stale journal:
SQLite needs byte-range locking on the VACUUM INTO destination, which
the CIFS storage box refuses. Now: vacuum into a local temp file, then
a plain sequential copy to the archive (always CIFS-safe), cleaning up
the temp and any leftover journal.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The 'external drive' turned out to be a CIFS-mounted Hetzner storage
box — SQLite cannot run on a network mount (WAL shared memory and
locking break), and the live DB is only ~7MB anyway. So: the hot
database stays on the local volume, and a nightly VACUUM INTO snapshot
(transactionally consistent, a plain sequential file write — perfect
for CIFS) lands in /data/archive, which compose binds to the storage
box via HOST_ARCHIVE_DIR. 14-day retention, plus a snapshot at boot.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
BACKTEST_QUICK=1 skips the hyperparameter grid and scores only the
shipped + previous configs — same test metrics, a fraction of the
build time on the 1-CPU VPS. The full grid search stays a local
activity. Verified byte-level: quick output matches the grid run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Bracket on phones: a segmented round picker with full-width cards
replaces the 1040px sideways scroll; desktop keeps the columns.
- Odds table: sticky team column; the three lowest-value columns hide
on phones so Team/QF/SF/Final/Champion fit without scrolling.
- Bottom nav: 4 primary tabs + a More sheet (vs Markt, Modell, Story,
Teams, Daten, plus language & theme toggles) — 7 tabs were cramped.
- Emoji → icons: timeline events use a ball icon, card-shaped color
chips and substitution arrows; unknown-team fallbacks use a shield.
Country-flag emojis stay (intentional).
- Readability: bigger scores on match cards, minimum text sizes bumped,
probability-number triple hides on the narrowest screens (the bar
carries the information).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The hardcoded 8-match cap is gone: all upcoming fixtures with a
prediction render in day-grouped sections (every match the model can
predict — slots resolve as the bracket fills). Filter chips narrow to
the next 3 days (default) or everything, and group stage vs knockout.
Match count shown in the heading.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Upcoming fixtures now appear grouped under localized day headers
(Coming up · Mon 15 Jun) regardless of whether something is on today —
not just when the day was empty. Pure grouping logic lives in
src/lib/fixtures.ts with day-boundary tests; prediction chips on the
cards come for free from MatchCard.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NilsBriggen