Fully progressive: without VAPID keys in the environment the API says
404, the bell never renders, and the service worker addition (a push
handler via workbox importScripts — no SW strategy change) is inert.
With keys: a bell on each team page requests permission, subscribes
(one team per device) and the server diffs fixture states on every
broadcast to push Kickoff / Goal / Full time to that team's followers.
Dead endpoints (404/410) self-clean. Round-trip verified locally with
dev VAPID keys; disabled mode verified too.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- scripts/buildBacktest.ts: honest walk-forward validation — params fit on
pre-2018 internationals, tested out-of-sample on 7,988 matches (2018-2026)
predicting each game from prior data only. Proper scoring (Brier/log-loss/RPS/
accuracy) vs uniform / base-rate / Elo-only baselines + a calibration analysis
(reliability bins + ECE). Results: 60% accuracy, RPS 0.171 (beats all
baselines), ECE 0.01 (excellent calibration).
- Methodology page (/methodology): plain-language model walkthrough, the backtest
scorecard, a custom-SVG reliability diagram, and honest limits. Transparency is
the differentiator — no market odds, no overclaiming.
- ReliabilityDiagram component; 'Model' nav entry.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Mobile bottom tab bar (icon tabs) with the top nav hidden on small screens;
content padding so it never overlaps
- data: scripts run via bun (not tsx/node) so the oven/bun build image needs no
node — fixes the Dockerfile data:build step
- README: features, data sources, dev/test/build/deploy, env vars
- Validated the production Docker image end-to-end: build succeeds (378MB),
container serves /healthz, /api/snapshot (104 fixtures), /api/predictions
(20k sims), the SPA with deep-link fallback, and the story dataset
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
NilsBriggen