Commit Graph

3 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
NilsBriggen 15d955e65c Starters-on-pitch, chart movers sort, pre-filled what-if bracket, vs/@ fix
- Finished matches show the STARTING XIs on the pitch (red markers with
  the minute on everyone subbed off) with 'Subbed on' / 'Subbed off'
  lists below, minutes and ratings included; live matches keep the
  current-XI view that swaps substitutes in
- Title-race chart gets a sort toggle, defaulting to 'Biggest movers'
  (the teams whose odds changed most at the latest update — what's
  relevant now) with 'Title favorites' as the alternative
- Entering what-if on the bracket now pre-fills the model's most likely
  tournament: group slots seeded from win-group/advance odds (best-
  thirds assigned to their allowed slots via backtracking), every
  pairing picked by the model — a complete overview to edit by tapping;
  Reset returns to the projection
- Team fixtures drop the US 'vs/@' convention: always 'vs' plus an H/A
  badge with a tooltip

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-12 13:46:27 +02:00
NilsBriggen b552bc8ba9 Fix title-race chart: persist the diary, dedupe restarts, date axis
The chart looked broken because its data was: history lived in memory,
so every deploy wiped it (yesterday's points were gone), and each boot
plus the +5min refit appended a fresh point labeled with the same last
result — leaving two identical flat segments on an index axis.

- model_history table: every diary point persists with the finished-
  result signature it was computed from; restored at boot
- points only append when the finished set actually changes — refit
  and boot recomputes update the snapshot without spamming the diary
- one-time rebuild when nothing is persisted: replay finished results
  in kickoff order, re-running the sim after each with later results
  masked, so the historical points are recreated faithfully
- chart x-axis shows localized dates instead of raw indices

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-12 12:26:33 +02:00
NilsBriggen d604bb14ff Phase 2: predictive model — Elo + Dixon-Coles + Monte Carlo
- buildRatings.ts: walks 49k historical results → World-Football-Elo per team,
  data-calibrated goals model (goals-per-Elo slope, mean goals) + MLE-fit
  Dixon-Coles rho. Top: Spain/Argentina/France (the real 2026 favourites)
- src/lib/model: elo, poisson/dixon-coles, predict, host-advantage, monteCarlo
  (full 48-team sim — group sampling, best-third bipartite allocation, knockout
  advance probs). 20 vitest cases incl. exact per-round count invariants
- Server ModelEngine: live Elo re-rating after each result, per-match W/D/L,
  20k-sim odds, odds-over-time history; broadcast on finished-result changes
- Client: championship board, heat-shaded odds table, lazy-loaded title-race
  chart (Recharts split to its own chunk), match-prediction bars, bracket
  advance overlay
- Verified: odds render, chart populates as injected results re-rate teams live

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-11 13:25:53 +02:00