Tournament stats hub, suspension tracker, card-aware live probabilities

- /stats: FotMob tournament boards (goals/assists/rating/xG player+team
  categories from the data.fotmob.com CDN, capture-first via scheduler),
  Golden Boot race with DraftKings anytime-line benchmark from the
  already-captured scorer props, and an attack-vs-defence xG scatter.
- Discipline engine (src/lib/discipline.ts): FIFA suspension rules folded
  from stored event feeds — red/second-yellow bans, two-yellow accumulation,
  post-QF wipe. Surfaces on /stats, team profiles and match lineups tabs.
- In-play win probability now accounts for red cards (10 men: own rate
  x0.67, opponent x1.15 per card) on the server tick and the match page.
- Fix ModelDiary infinite render loop (unstable zustand snapshot while the
  model loads crashed the Methodology route under React 19).
- Drop dead tables squad + goalscorers; scorer_props is now read.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/features/match/MatchPreviewPage.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from 'react';
 import { Link, useParams } from '@tanstack/react-router';
-import { ArrowLeft, ArrowRight, Shield, Shirt } from 'lucide-react';
+import { ArrowLeft, ArrowRight, Ban, Shield, Shirt } from 'lucide-react';
 import { Badge } from '@/components/ui/Badge';
 import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader } from '@/components/ui/Card';
 import { WinProbBar } from '@/components/WinProbBar';
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import { LineupPitch } from '@/components/LineupPitch';
 import { teamFlag } from '@/lib/teams';
 import { fmt, useFormat, useT } from '@/lib/i18n';
 import { goalEvents } from '@/lib/matchEvents';
+import { redCards } from '@/lib/discipline';
 import { inPlayProbs } from '@/lib/model/inplay';
 import { useTournamentStore } from '@/stores/tournamentStore';
 import type { Fixture, KeyPlayer, MatchPreview, MatchRich, OddsPoint } from '@/lib/types';
@@ -147,7 +148,8 @@ export function MatchPreviewPage() {
 
   const inPlay = useMemo(() => {
     if (!preview?.prediction || !f || f.status !== 'live' || f.homeScore == null || f.awayScore == null) return null;
-    return inPlayProbs(preview.prediction.lambdaHome, preview.prediction.lambdaAway, f.minute ?? 0, f.homeScore, f.awayScore);
+    const reds = redCards(preview.events);
+    return inPlayProbs(preview.prediction.lambdaHome, preview.prediction.lambdaAway, f.minute ?? 0, f.homeScore, f.awayScore, reds.home, reds.away);
   }, [preview, f]);
 
   const statRows = useMemo<[string, string][]>(() => [
@@ -428,6 +430,21 @@ export function MatchPreviewPage() {
       {/* ── Lineups ── */}
       {tab === 'lineups' && (
         <div className="space-y-4">
+          {(preview.suspensions.home.length > 0 || preview.suspensions.away.length > 0) && (
+            <Card className="border-loss/30">
+              <CardBody className="space-y-1.5 text-sm">
+                {([['home', preview.suspensions.home], ['away', preview.suspensions.away]] as const)
+                  .filter(([, players]) => players.length > 0)
+                  .map(([side, players]) => (
+                    <div key={side} className="flex items-center gap-2 text-ink-soft">
+                      <Ban size={14} className="shrink-0 text-loss" />
+                      <span aria-hidden>{(side === 'home' ? f.home.team : f.away.team) ? teamFlag((side === 'home' ? f.home.team : f.away.team)!) : ''}</span>
+                      <span>{fmt(t.match.suspended, { players: players.join(', ') })}</span>
+                    </div>
+                  ))}
+              </CardBody>
+            </Card>
+          )}
           {/* Before kickoff the pitch shows FotMob's projected XIs, clearly
               labeled as predicted; from kickoff it's the confirmed lineup. */}
           {rich?.lineup ? (