Market-movement chart: the bookmaker line vs our model, per match
The odds history we have been capturing every 3h finally gets a face: de-vigged DraftKings probabilities drift as solid lines toward kickoff, with the model's numbers as dashed references — the honest benchmark framing, right on the match page. Renders only when at least two pre-kickoff lines exist. EN/DE copy included. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -85,6 +85,8 @@ export const en = {
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},
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timeline: "Timeline",
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momentum: "How the win probability swung",
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oddsMovement: "Market movement vs the model",
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oddsMovementNote: "Solid lines: the bookmaker's odds with the margin removed, drifting toward kickoff. Dashed lines: our model's probabilities. The market is a benchmark — the model never sees it.",
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preMatchModel: "Pre-match model",
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modelExpectation: "Model expectation",
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expectedGoalsLine: "Expected goals: {home} – {away} · model probabilities, not betting advice",
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