Market-movement chart: the bookmaker line vs our model, per match

The odds history we have been capturing every 3h finally gets a face:
de-vigged DraftKings probabilities drift as solid lines toward
kickoff, with the model's numbers as dashed references — the honest
benchmark framing, right on the match page. Renders only when at least
two pre-kickoff lines exist. EN/DE copy included.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/lib/i18n/de.ts

@@ -86,6 +86,8 @@ export const de: Dict = {
     },
     timeline: "Spielverlauf",
     momentum: "So schwankte die Siegwahrscheinlichkeit",
+    oddsMovement: "Marktbewegung vs. Modell",
+    oddsMovementNote: "Durchgezogene Linien: die Buchmacherquoten ohne Marge, im Verlauf bis zum Anstoß. Gestrichelt: die Wahrscheinlichkeiten unseres Modells. Der Markt ist nur Vergleichsmaßstab — das Modell sieht ihn nie.",
     preMatchModel: "Modell vor Anstoß",
     modelExpectation: "Modell-Prognose",
     expectedGoalsLine: "Erwartete Tore (xG): {home} – {away} · Modell-Wahrscheinlichkeiten, keine Wettempfehlung",

src/lib/i18n/en.ts

@@ -85,6 +85,8 @@ export const en = {
     },
     timeline: "Timeline",
     momentum: "How the win probability swung",
+    oddsMovement: "Market movement vs the model",
+    oddsMovementNote: "Solid lines: the bookmaker's odds with the margin removed, drifting toward kickoff. Dashed lines: our model's probabilities. The market is a benchmark — the model never sees it.",
     preMatchModel: "Pre-match model",
     modelExpectation: "Model expectation",
     expectedGoalsLine: "Expected goals: {home} – {away} · model probabilities, not betting advice",

src/lib/types.ts

@@ -100,6 +100,16 @@ export interface MatchPrediction {
   topScore: { home: number; away: number; p: number };
 }
 
+/** One captured bookmaker line — history for the market-movement chart. */
+export interface OddsPoint {
+  fixture_num: number;
+  provider: string;
+  captured_at: number;
+  home_ml: number | null;
+  draw_ml: number | null;
+  away_ml: number | null;
+}
+
 /** A point on the championship-odds-over-time chart. */
 export interface OddsHistoryPoint {
   t: string;