v2 Phase 4: live match center + in-play win probability

- src/lib/model/inplay.ts: in-play win probability — remaining goals modelled as
  time-scaled Poisson processes convolved with the current score; recomputed each
  tick. 4 vitest cases (locks at FT, lead grows decisive over time, sums to 1).
- ESPN summary normalizer extended with the live event timeline (keyEvents);
  preview now carries liveStats + events. Scheduler refreshes LIVE matches'
  summaries every live tick (~20s) for fresh stats/timeline.
- /match/:num is now a live match center: when live it shows in-play win
  probability (driven by the WS score/clock), match stats bars and an event
  timeline, polling while live; preview content for scheduled games, recap when
  finished. Verified with a simulated live state (94% live vs 81% pre-match).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

server/src/ingest/espnNormalize.ts

@@ -64,6 +64,7 @@ export function normalizeScoreboard(body: { events?: EspnEvent[] }): EspnMatch[]
 export interface EspnH2HGame { date: string; homeTeamId: string; awayTeamId: string; homeScore: number; awayScore: number }
 export interface EspnTeamRef { id: string; name: string; homeAway: 'home' | 'away' }
 export interface EspnLineupPlayer { name: string; position: string | null; starter: boolean; number: number | null }
+export interface EspnTimelineEvent { minute: number | null; type: string; text: string; teamId: string | null }
 export interface EspnSummary {
   fetchedAt: number;
   venue: string | null;
@@ -74,6 +75,8 @@ export interface EspnSummary {
   lineups: Record<string, EspnLineupPlayer[]>;
   /** Team match stats (possession, shots, …) once the game is live/finished. */
   stats: Record<string, Record<string, string>>;
+  /** Live/finished event timeline (goals, cards, subs). */
+  events: EspnTimelineEvent[];
 }
 
 export interface RawSummary {
@@ -85,6 +88,7 @@ export interface RawSummary {
     teams?: { team?: { id: string }; statistics?: { name: string; displayValue: string }[] }[];
   };
   rosters?: { team?: { id: string }; roster?: { athlete?: { displayName?: string }; position?: { abbreviation?: string }; starter?: boolean; jersey?: string }[] }[];
+  keyEvents?: { clock?: { displayValue?: string }; type?: { text?: string }; text?: string; team?: { id?: string } }[];
 }
 
 export function normalizeSummary(raw: RawSummary): EspnSummary {
@@ -128,5 +132,15 @@ export function normalizeSummary(raw: RawSummary): EspnSummary {
     stats[id] = Object.fromEntries((t.statistics ?? []).map((s) => [s.name, s.displayValue]));
   }
 
-  return { fetchedAt: Date.now(), venue: raw.gameInfo?.venue?.fullName ?? null, teams, h2h, form, lineups, stats };
+  const events: EspnTimelineEvent[] = (raw.keyEvents ?? []).map((e) => {
+    const m = e.clock?.displayValue?.match(/(\d+)/);
+    return {
+      minute: m ? Number(m[1]) : null,
+      type: e.type?.text ?? '',
+      text: e.text ?? '',
+      teamId: e.team?.id ?? null,
+    };
+  });
+
+  return { fetchedAt: Date.now(), venue: raw.gameInfo?.venue?.fullName ?? null, teams, h2h, form, lineups, stats, events };
 }

server/src/ingest/scheduler.ts

@@ -77,6 +77,14 @@ export function startScheduler(state: TournamentState, onChange: () => void): ()
       const changed = state.mergeLive(matches, source);
       if (changed.length) { console.log(`[ingest] ${changed.length} fixture(s) updated via ${source}`); onChange(); }
     }
+
+    // Keep live matches' stats + event timeline fresh at the live cadence.
+    for (const f of state.allFixtures()) {
+      if (f.status !== 'live') continue;
+      const eid = getSourceMap(f.num, 'espn');
+      if (!eid) continue;
+      try { setMatchExt(f.num, await fetchEspnSummary(eid)); } catch { /* logged via health */ }
+    }
   };
 
   // ---- enrichment: ESPN summary for imminent/live fixtures ----

server/src/preview.ts

@@ -85,6 +85,16 @@ export function buildPreview(num: number, state: TournamentState, model: ModelEn
       home: home ? scorersData()[home] ?? [] : [],
       away: away ? scorersData()[away] ?? [] : [],
     },
+    liveStats:
+      eh && ea && (Object.keys(summary!.stats[eh.id] ?? {}).length || Object.keys(summary!.stats[ea.id] ?? {}).length)
+        ? { home: summary!.stats[eh.id] ?? {}, away: summary!.stats[ea.id] ?? {} }
+        : null,
+    events: (summary?.events ?? []).map((e) => ({
+      minute: e.minute,
+      type: e.type,
+      text: e.text,
+      team: e.teamId === eh?.id ? 'home' : e.teamId === ea?.id ? 'away' : null,
+    })),
     dataNote: !home || !away
       ? 'Knockout participants are decided once the bracket resolves.'
       : ext

src/features/match/MatchPreviewPage.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { useEffect, useState } from 'react';
+import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from 'react';
 import { Link, useParams } from '@tanstack/react-router';
 import { ArrowLeft, Shirt } from 'lucide-react';
 import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader } from '@/components/ui/Card';
@@ -6,175 +6,63 @@ import { WinProbBar } from '@/components/WinProbBar';
 import { FormChips } from '@/components/FormChips';
 import { teamFlag } from '@/lib/teams';
 import { kickoffDay, kickoffTime } from '@/lib/format';
-import type { KeyPlayer, MatchPreview } from '@/lib/types';
+import { inPlayProbs } from '@/lib/model/inplay';
+import { useTournamentStore } from '@/stores/tournamentStore';
+import type { Fixture, KeyPlayer, MatchPreview } from '@/lib/types';
 
 const STAGE: Record<string, string> = {
   group: 'Group', r32: 'Round of 32', r16: 'Round of 16', qf: 'Quarter-final', sf: 'Semi-final', third: 'Third place', final: 'Final',
 };
+const STAT_ROWS: [string, string][] = [
+  ['possessionPct', 'Possession'],
+  ['totalShots', 'Shots'],
+  ['shotsOnTarget', 'On target'],
+  ['wonCorners', 'Corners'],
+  ['foulsCommitted', 'Fouls'],
+  ['saves', 'Saves'],
+];
+const num = (s: string | undefined) => (s ? Number(s.replace('%', '')) || 0 : 0);
+
+function eventIcon(type: string): string {
+  const t = type.toLowerCase();
+  if (t.includes('goal') || t.includes('penalty - scored')) return '⚽';
+  if (t.includes('yellow')) return '🟨';
+  if (t.includes('red')) return '🟥';
+  if (t.includes('substitution')) return '🔁';
+  return '•';
+}
+
+function LiveStatRow({ label, home, away }: { label: string; home: number; away: number }) {
+  const total = home + away || 1;
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-sm">
+        <span className="tnum font-bold text-accent">{home}</span>
+        <span className="text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-faint">{label}</span>
+        <span className="tnum font-bold text-info">{away}</span>
+      </div>
+      <div className="mt-1 flex h-1.5 overflow-hidden rounded-full bg-elevated">
+        <div className="bg-accent" style={{ width: `${(home / total) * 100}%` }} />
+        <div className="ml-auto bg-info" style={{ width: `${(away / total) * 100}%` }} />
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
 
 function ScorerList({ team, players }: { team: string; players: KeyPlayer[] }) {
   return (
     <div>
-      <div className="mb-2 flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-semibold text-ink">
-        <span aria-hidden>{teamFlag(team)}</span> {team}
-      </div>
+      <div className="mb-2 flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-semibold text-ink"><span aria-hidden>{teamFlag(team)}</span> {team}</div>
       {players.length ? (
         <ul className="space-y-1">
           {players.slice(0, 6).map((p) => (
             <li key={p.name} className="flex items-center justify-between text-sm">
               <span className="truncate text-ink-soft">{p.name}</span>
-              <span className="tnum shrink-0 text-faint">
-                {p.goals}{p.pens ? <span className="text-faint/70"> ({p.pens}p)</span> : null}
-              </span>
+              <span className="tnum shrink-0 text-faint">{p.goals}{p.pens ? ` (${p.pens}p)` : ''}</span>
             </li>
           ))}
         </ul>
-      ) : (
-        <p className="text-xs text-faint">no data</p>
-      )}
-    </div>
-  );
-}
-
-export function MatchPreviewPage() {
-  const { num } = useParams({ strict: false }) as { num: string };
-  const [preview, setPreview] = useState<MatchPreview | null>(null);
-  const [failed, setFailed] = useState(false);
-
-  useEffect(() => {
-    let alive = true;
-    setPreview(null);
-    setFailed(false);
-    fetch(`/api/preview/${num}`)
-      .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.json() : Promise.reject()))
-      .then((d: MatchPreview) => alive && setPreview(d))
-      .catch(() => alive && setFailed(true));
-    return () => { alive = false; };
-  }, [num]);
-
-  if (failed) {
-    return (
-      <div className="py-16 text-center text-muted">
-        Couldn&apos;t load that match. <Link to="/" className="text-accent">Back to Live</Link>
-      </div>
-    );
-  }
-  if (!preview) return <div className="h-96 animate-pulse rounded-xl border border-line bg-panel" />;
-
-  const f = preview.fixture;
-  const hasScore = f.status === 'live' || f.status === 'finished';
-  const homeName = f.home.label;
-  const awayName = f.away.label;
-
-  return (
-    <div className="space-y-5">
-      <Link to="/" className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm text-muted hover:text-ink">
-        <ArrowLeft size={15} /> Back
-      </Link>
-
-      {/* hero */}
-      <Card>
-        <CardBody>
-          <div className="mb-3 text-center text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-faint">
-            {f.group ? `Group ${f.group}` : STAGE[f.stage]} · {kickoffDay(f.kickoff)} · {kickoffTime(f.kickoff)} · {preview.venue}
-          </div>
-          <div className="grid grid-cols-[1fr_auto_1fr] items-center gap-3">
-            <Link to="/team/$name" params={{ name: f.home.team ?? '' }} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1 hover:opacity-80">
-              <span aria-hidden className="text-4xl">{f.home.team ? teamFlag(f.home.team) : '⚽'}</span>
-              <span className="text-center text-sm font-semibold text-ink">{homeName}</span>
-            </Link>
-            <div className="text-center">
-              {hasScore ? (
-                <div className="tnum text-3xl font-extrabold text-ink">{f.homeScore ?? 0}–{f.awayScore ?? 0}</div>
-              ) : (
-                <div className="tnum text-lg font-bold text-muted">{kickoffTime(f.kickoff)}</div>
-              )}
-              {f.status === 'live' && <div className="text-[11px] font-bold uppercase text-live">{f.minute ? `${f.minute}'` : 'Live'}</div>}
-            </div>
-            <Link to="/team/$name" params={{ name: f.away.team ?? '' }} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1 hover:opacity-80">
-              <span aria-hidden className="text-4xl">{f.away.team ? teamFlag(f.away.team) : '⚽'}</span>
-              <span className="text-center text-sm font-semibold text-ink">{awayName}</span>
-            </Link>
-          </div>
-        </CardBody>
-      </Card>
-
-      {/* model expectation */}
-      {preview.prediction && (
-        <Card>
-          <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Model expectation</span></CardHeader>
-          <CardBody className="space-y-2">
-            <WinProbBar home={preview.prediction.home} away={preview.prediction.away} probs={preview.prediction.probs} topScore={preview.prediction.topScore} />
-            <p className="text-xs text-faint">
-              Expected goals: {preview.prediction.lambdaHome.toFixed(2)} – {preview.prediction.lambdaAway.toFixed(2)} ·
-              model odds, not betting advice
-            </p>
-          </CardBody>
-        </Card>
-      )}
-
-      {/* form */}
-      <Card>
-        <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Recent form</span></CardHeader>
-        <CardBody className="space-y-3">
-          <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
-            <span className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-ink">{f.home.team && teamFlag(f.home.team)} {homeName}</span>
-            <FormChips form={preview.form.home} />
-          </div>
-          <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
-            <span className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-ink">{f.away.team && teamFlag(f.away.team)} {awayName}</span>
-            <FormChips form={preview.form.away} />
-          </div>
-        </CardBody>
-      </Card>
-
-      {/* head to head */}
-      {preview.h2h && (
-        <Card>
-          <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Head to head</span></CardHeader>
-          <CardBody>
-            <div className="mb-3 grid grid-cols-3 items-center text-center">
-              <div><div className="tnum text-2xl font-extrabold text-accent">{preview.h2h.homeWins}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-faint">{homeName} wins</div></div>
-              <div><div className="tnum text-2xl font-extrabold text-muted">{preview.h2h.draws}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-faint">draws · {preview.h2h.games} total</div></div>
-              <div><div className="tnum text-2xl font-extrabold text-info">{preview.h2h.awayWins}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-faint">{awayName} wins</div></div>
-            </div>
-            <div className="border-t border-line pt-2">
-              <div className="mb-1 text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-faint">Recent meetings</div>
-              <ul className="space-y-1 text-sm">
-                {preview.h2h.last.map((m, i) => (
-                  <li key={i} className="flex items-center justify-between text-ink-soft">
-                    <span className="text-faint">{m.date.slice(0, 10)}</span>
-                    <span>{m.home} <span className="tnum font-semibold text-ink">{m.homeScore}–{m.awayScore}</span> {m.away}</span>
-                  </li>
-                ))}
-              </ul>
-            </div>
-          </CardBody>
-        </Card>
-      )}
-
-      {/* lineups or key players */}
-      <Card>
-        <CardHeader className="flex items-center gap-2">
-          <Shirt size={16} className="text-accent" />
-          <span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">{preview.lineups ? 'Lineups' : 'Key players (all-time scorers)'}</span>
-        </CardHeader>
-        <CardBody className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-6">
-          {preview.lineups ? (
-            <>
-              <LineupCol team={homeName} players={preview.lineups.home} />
-              <LineupCol team={awayName} players={preview.lineups.away} />
-            </>
-          ) : (
-            <>
-              <ScorerList team={homeName} players={preview.keyPlayers.home} />
-              <ScorerList team={awayName} players={preview.keyPlayers.away} />
-            </>
-          )}
-        </CardBody>
-      </Card>
-
-      <p className="text-center text-xs text-faint">{preview.dataNote}</p>
+      ) : <p className="text-xs text-faint">no data</p>}
     </div>
   );
 }
@@ -197,3 +85,175 @@ function LineupCol({ team, players }: { team: string; players: { name: string; p
     </div>
   );
 }
+
+export function MatchPreviewPage() {
+  const { num: numParam } = useParams({ strict: false }) as { num: string };
+  const [preview, setPreview] = useState<MatchPreview | null>(null);
+  const [failed, setFailed] = useState(false);
+
+  // Live score/minute arrive over the WebSocket snapshot — overlay them on the
+  // (less-frequently-fetched) preview.
+  const liveFixture = useTournamentStore((s) => s.snapshot?.fixtures.find((f) => f.num === Number(numParam)));
+  const isLive = (liveFixture?.status ?? preview?.fixture.status) === 'live';
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true;
+    setPreview(null);
+    setFailed(false);
+    const load = () =>
+      fetch(`/api/preview/${numParam}`)
+        .then((r) => (r.ok ? r.json() : Promise.reject()))
+        .then((d: MatchPreview) => alive && setPreview(d))
+        .catch(() => alive && setFailed(true));
+    void load();
+    const id = setInterval(() => { if (useTournamentStore.getState().snapshot?.fixtures.find((f) => f.num === Number(numParam))?.status === 'live') void load(); }, 20_000);
+    return () => { alive = false; clearInterval(id); };
+  }, [numParam]);
+
+  const f: Fixture | undefined = liveFixture ?? preview?.fixture;
+
+  const inPlay = useMemo(() => {
+    if (!preview?.prediction || !f || f.status !== 'live' || f.homeScore == null || f.awayScore == null) return null;
+    return inPlayProbs(preview.prediction.lambdaHome, preview.prediction.lambdaAway, f.minute ?? 0, f.homeScore, f.awayScore);
+  }, [preview, f]);
+
+  if (failed) return <div className="py-16 text-center text-muted">Couldn&apos;t load that match. <Link to="/" className="text-accent">Back to Live</Link></div>;
+  if (!preview || !f) return <div className="h-96 animate-pulse rounded-xl border border-line bg-panel" />;
+
+  const hasScore = f.status === 'live' || f.status === 'finished';
+  const homeName = f.home.label;
+  const awayName = f.away.label;
+  const finished = f.status === 'finished';
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-5">
+      <Link to="/" className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm text-muted hover:text-ink"><ArrowLeft size={15} /> Back</Link>
+
+      {/* hero */}
+      <Card className={isLive ? 'border-live/40 ring-1 ring-live/30' : ''}>
+        <CardBody>
+          <div className="mb-3 text-center text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-faint">
+            {f.group ? `Group ${f.group}` : STAGE[f.stage]} · {kickoffDay(f.kickoff)} · {kickoffTime(f.kickoff)} · {preview.venue}
+          </div>
+          <div className="grid grid-cols-[1fr_auto_1fr] items-center gap-3">
+            <Link to="/team/$name" params={{ name: f.home.team ?? '' }} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1 hover:opacity-80">
+              <span aria-hidden className="text-4xl">{f.home.team ? teamFlag(f.home.team) : '⚽'}</span>
+              <span className="text-center text-sm font-semibold text-ink">{homeName}</span>
+            </Link>
+            <div className="text-center">
+              {hasScore ? <div className="tnum text-3xl font-extrabold text-ink">{f.homeScore ?? 0}–{f.awayScore ?? 0}</div> : <div className="tnum text-lg font-bold text-muted">{kickoffTime(f.kickoff)}</div>}
+              {isLive && <div className="inline-flex items-center gap-1 text-[11px] font-bold uppercase text-live"><span className="live-dot h-1.5 w-1.5 rounded-full bg-live" />{f.minute ? `${f.minute}'` : 'Live'}</div>}
+              {finished && <div className="text-[11px] font-bold uppercase text-faint">Full time</div>}
+            </div>
+            <Link to="/team/$name" params={{ name: f.away.team ?? '' }} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1 hover:opacity-80">
+              <span aria-hidden className="text-4xl">{f.away.team ? teamFlag(f.away.team) : '⚽'}</span>
+              <span className="text-center text-sm font-semibold text-ink">{awayName}</span>
+            </Link>
+          </div>
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      {/* LIVE: in-play win probability */}
+      {inPlay && preview.prediction && (
+        <Card className="border-live/30">
+          <CardHeader className="flex items-center gap-2">
+            <span className="live-dot h-2 w-2 rounded-full bg-live" />
+            <span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Live win probability</span>
+          </CardHeader>
+          <CardBody>
+            <WinProbBar home={homeName} away={awayName} probs={inPlay} />
+            <p className="mt-2 text-xs text-faint">Updates with the score and clock — remaining goals modelled from each side&apos;s pre-match expectation.</p>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      {/* LIVE/FT: stats */}
+      {preview.liveStats && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Match stats</span></CardHeader>
+          <CardBody className="space-y-3">
+            {STAT_ROWS.filter(([k]) => preview.liveStats!.home[k] != null || preview.liveStats!.away[k] != null).map(([k, label]) => (
+              <LiveStatRow key={k} label={label} home={num(preview.liveStats!.home[k])} away={num(preview.liveStats!.away[k])} />
+            ))}
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      {/* LIVE/FT: timeline */}
+      {preview.events.length > 0 && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Timeline</span></CardHeader>
+          <CardBody>
+            <ul className="space-y-1.5">
+              {preview.events.map((e, i) => (
+                <li key={i} className={`flex items-center gap-2 text-sm ${e.team === 'away' ? 'flex-row-reverse text-right' : ''}`}>
+                  <span className="tnum w-8 shrink-0 text-xs text-faint">{e.minute != null ? `${e.minute}'` : ''}</span>
+                  <span aria-hidden>{eventIcon(e.type)}</span>
+                  <span className="truncate text-ink-soft">{e.text || e.type}</span>
+                </li>
+              ))}
+            </ul>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      {/* model expectation */}
+      {preview.prediction && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">{hasScore ? 'Pre-match model' : 'Model expectation'}</span></CardHeader>
+          <CardBody className="space-y-2">
+            <WinProbBar home={preview.prediction.home} away={preview.prediction.away} probs={preview.prediction.probs} topScore={preview.prediction.topScore} />
+            <p className="text-xs text-faint">Expected goals: {preview.prediction.lambdaHome.toFixed(2)} – {preview.prediction.lambdaAway.toFixed(2)} · model odds, not betting advice</p>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      {/* form */}
+      {(preview.form.home.length > 0 || preview.form.away.length > 0) && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Recent form</span></CardHeader>
+          <CardBody className="space-y-3">
+            <div className="flex items-center justify-between"><span className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-ink">{f.home.team && teamFlag(f.home.team)} {homeName}</span><FormChips form={preview.form.home} /></div>
+            <div className="flex items-center justify-between"><span className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-ink">{f.away.team && teamFlag(f.away.team)} {awayName}</span><FormChips form={preview.form.away} /></div>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      {/* head to head */}
+      {preview.h2h && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">Head to head</span></CardHeader>
+          <CardBody>
+            <div className="mb-3 grid grid-cols-3 items-center text-center">
+              <div><div className="tnum text-2xl font-extrabold text-accent">{preview.h2h.homeWins}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-faint">{homeName} wins</div></div>
+              <div><div className="tnum text-2xl font-extrabold text-muted">{preview.h2h.draws}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-faint">draws · {preview.h2h.games} total</div></div>
+              <div><div className="tnum text-2xl font-extrabold text-info">{preview.h2h.awayWins}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-faint">{awayName} wins</div></div>
+            </div>
+            <div className="border-t border-line pt-2">
+              <div className="mb-1 text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wide text-faint">Recent meetings</div>
+              <ul className="space-y-1 text-sm">
+                {preview.h2h.last.map((m, i) => (
+                  <li key={i} className="flex items-center justify-between text-ink-soft"><span className="text-faint">{m.date.slice(0, 10)}</span><span>{m.home} <span className="tnum font-semibold text-ink">{m.homeScore}–{m.awayScore}</span> {m.away}</span></li>
+                ))}
+              </ul>
+            </div>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      {/* lineups or key players */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader className="flex items-center gap-2"><Shirt size={16} className="text-accent" /><span className="font-display font-bold text-ink">{preview.lineups ? 'Lineups' : 'Key players (all-time scorers)'}</span></CardHeader>
+        <CardBody className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-6">
+          {preview.lineups ? (
+            <><LineupCol team={homeName} players={preview.lineups.home} /><LineupCol team={awayName} players={preview.lineups.away} /></>
+          ) : (
+            <><ScorerList team={homeName} players={preview.keyPlayers.home} /><ScorerList team={awayName} players={preview.keyPlayers.away} /></>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      <p className="text-center text-xs text-faint">{preview.dataNote}</p>
+    </div>
+  );
+}

src/lib/model/inplay.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest';
+import { inPlayProbs } from './inplay';
+
+describe('inPlayProbs', () => {
+  it('sums to 1 and roughly matches pre-match at kickoff', () => {
+    const p = inPlayProbs(1.8, 0.9, 0, 0, 0);
+    expect(p.home + p.draw + p.away).toBeCloseTo(1, 6);
+    expect(p.home).toBeGreaterThan(p.away); // stronger side favoured
+  });
+
+  it('locks the result at full time', () => {
+    expect(inPlayProbs(1.5, 1.2, 90, 2, 1)).toEqual({ home: 1, draw: 0, away: 0 });
+    expect(inPlayProbs(1.5, 1.2, 95, 1, 1)).toEqual({ home: 0, draw: 1, away: 0 });
+    expect(inPlayProbs(1.5, 1.2, 90, 0, 2)).toEqual({ home: 0, draw: 0, away: 1 });
+  });
+
+  it('a lead becomes more decisive as time runs down', () => {
+    const early = inPlayProbs(1.4, 1.4, 20, 1, 0);
+    const late = inPlayProbs(1.4, 1.4, 80, 1, 0);
+    expect(late.home).toBeGreaterThan(early.home);
+    expect(late.away).toBeLessThan(early.away);
+  });
+
+  it('chasing team still has hope early but little late', () => {
+    const trailingEarly = inPlayProbs(1.3, 1.3, 30, 0, 1).home;
+    const trailingLate = inPlayProbs(1.3, 1.3, 85, 0, 1).home;
+    expect(trailingEarly).toBeGreaterThan(trailingLate);
+    expect(trailingLate).toBeLessThan(0.1);
+  });
+});

src/lib/model/inplay.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+import { poissonPmf, type OutcomeProbs } from './poisson';
+
+// In-play win probability. Given each side's pre-match goal expectation, the
+// current score, and the minute, the remaining goals are modelled as independent
+// Poisson processes scaled to the time left — convolved with the current score to
+// give live win/draw/loss. Cheap enough to recompute on every tick.
+
+const REG_MINUTES = 90;
+const MAX_GOALS = 12;
+
+export function inPlayProbs(
+  lambdaHome: number,
+  lambdaAway: number,
+  minute: number,
+  scoreHome: number,
+  scoreAway: number,
+): OutcomeProbs {
+  const remaining = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, (REG_MINUTES - minute) / REG_MINUTES));
+
+  if (remaining <= 0) {
+    if (scoreHome > scoreAway) return { home: 1, draw: 0, away: 0 };
+    if (scoreHome < scoreAway) return { home: 0, draw: 0, away: 1 };
+    return { home: 0, draw: 1, away: 0 };
+  }
+
+  const lh = lambdaHome * remaining;
+  const la = lambdaAway * remaining;
+  const ph = Array.from({ length: MAX_GOALS + 1 }, (_, k) => poissonPmf(lh, k));
+  const pa = Array.from({ length: MAX_GOALS + 1 }, (_, k) => poissonPmf(la, k));
+
+  let home = 0, draw = 0, away = 0;
+  for (let i = 0; i <= MAX_GOALS; i++) {
+    for (let j = 0; j <= MAX_GOALS; j++) {
+      const p = ph[i]! * pa[j]!;
+      const fh = scoreHome + i;
+      const fa = scoreAway + j;
+      if (fh > fa) home += p;
+      else if (fh < fa) away += p;
+      else draw += p;
+    }
+  }
+  const total = home + draw + away;
+  return { home: home / total, draw: draw / total, away: away / total };
+}

src/lib/types.ts

@@ -133,6 +133,7 @@ export interface H2HSummary {
 
 export interface KeyPlayer { name: string; goals: number; pens: number }
 export interface LineupPlayer { name: string; position: string | null; starter: boolean; number: number | null }
+export interface MatchLiveEvent { minute: number | null; type: string; text: string; team: 'home' | 'away' | null }
 
 export interface MatchPreview {
   num: number;
@@ -144,6 +145,10 @@ export interface MatchPreview {
   h2h: H2HSummary | null;
   lineups: { home: LineupPlayer[]; away: LineupPlayer[] } | null;
   keyPlayers: { home: KeyPlayer[]; away: KeyPlayer[] };
+  /** Live/finished team stats (possession, shots, …), null pre-match. */
+  liveStats: { home: Record<string, string>; away: Record<string, string> } | null;
+  /** Live/finished event timeline (goals, cards, subs). */
+  events: MatchLiveEvent[];
   /** Honest note on which data layers are populated yet. */
   dataNote: string;
   updatedAt: number | null;