From 3d3267d803c002d2d07cfdcf849d7cff2aface0f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Nils Briggen <nilsbriggen@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 13:14:08 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] Show the predicted scoreline, not decimal expected goals

Coming-up cards and the post-match comparison now use the model's most
likely score ('2-0') instead of decimal goal expectations ('2.3-0.4');
the pre-match model card keeps just the honesty note since the bar's
chip already carries the predicted scoreline.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 src/components/MatchCard.tsx            | 2 +-
 src/features/match/MatchPreviewPage.tsx | 6 +++---
 src/lib/i18n/de.ts                      | 5 ++---
 src/lib/i18n/en.ts                      | 5 ++---
 4 files changed, 8 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/components/MatchCard.tsx b/src/components/MatchCard.tsx
index 51f8923..7347ad1 100644
--- a/src/components/MatchCard.tsx
+++ b/src/components/MatchCard.tsx
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ function ModelHint({ num }: { num: number }) {
     <div className="mt-1.5 text-center text-[11px] text-faint">
       {t.match.modelPrefix} {side ? <>{teamFlag(side)} {side} </> : `${t.common.draw} `}
       <span className="font-semibold text-muted">{Math.round(p * 100)}%</span>
-      <span className="tnum"> · {pred.lambdaHome.toFixed(1)}–{pred.lambdaAway.toFixed(1)} {t.match.goalsShort}</span>
+      <span className="tnum" title={t.common.mostLikelyScore}> · {pred.topScore.home}–{pred.topScore.away}</span>
     </div>
   );
 }
diff --git a/src/features/match/MatchPreviewPage.tsx b/src/features/match/MatchPreviewPage.tsx
index db02aa5..48be6d9 100644
--- a/src/features/match/MatchPreviewPage.tsx
+++ b/src/features/match/MatchPreviewPage.tsx
@@ -216,12 +216,12 @@ export function MatchPreviewPage() {
         <p className="text-xs text-faint">
           {finished && f.homeScore != null && f.awayScore != null
             ? fmt(t.match.predictedVsActual, {
-                ph: preview.prediction.lambdaHome.toFixed(2),
-                pa: preview.prediction.lambdaAway.toFixed(2),
+                ph: preview.prediction.topScore.home,
+                pa: preview.prediction.topScore.away,
                 ah: f.homeScore,
                 aa: f.awayScore,
               })
-            : fmt(t.match.expectedGoalsLine, { home: preview.prediction.lambdaHome.toFixed(2), away: preview.prediction.lambdaAway.toFixed(2) })}
+            : t.match.modelHonestyNote}
         </p>
       </CardBody>
     </Card>
diff --git a/src/lib/i18n/de.ts b/src/lib/i18n/de.ts
index b66dccb..dc5d395 100644
--- a/src/lib/i18n/de.ts
+++ b/src/lib/i18n/de.ts
@@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ export const de: Dict = {
     oddsMovementNote: "Durchgezogene Linien: die Buchmacherquoten ohne Marge, im Verlauf bis zum Anstoß. Gestrichelt: die Wahrscheinlichkeiten unseres Modells. Der Markt ist nur Vergleichsmaßstab — das Modell sieht ihn nie.",
     preMatchModel: "Modell vor Anstoß",
     modelExpectation: "Modell-Prognose",
-    expectedGoalsLine: "Erwartete Tore (xG): {home} – {away} · Modell-Wahrscheinlichkeiten, keine Wettempfehlung",
+    modelHonestyNote: "Modell-Wahrscheinlichkeiten — keine Wettempfehlung.",
     recentForm: "Aktuelle Form",
     headToHead: "Direkter Vergleich",
     h2h: {
@@ -132,8 +132,7 @@ export const de: Dict = {
     subbedOff: "Ausgewechselt",
     predictedLineups: "Voraussichtliche Aufstellungen",
     predictedLineupsNote: "Voraussichtliche Startelf laut FotMob — die offiziellen Aufstellungen kommen meist rund eine Stunde vor Anstoß.",
-    predictedVsActual: "Erwartete Tore des Modells vor Anstoß: {ph} – {pa} · Endstand {ah}–{aa}",
-    goalsShort: "Tore",
+    predictedVsActual: "Modell-Prognose vor Anstoß: {ph}–{pa} · Endstand {ah}–{aa}",
     chips: {
       att: "Zusch.",
       ref: "SR",
diff --git a/src/lib/i18n/en.ts b/src/lib/i18n/en.ts
index a2b5535..cff3abb 100644
--- a/src/lib/i18n/en.ts
+++ b/src/lib/i18n/en.ts
@@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ export const en = {
     oddsMovementNote: "Solid lines: the bookmaker's odds with the margin removed, drifting toward kickoff. Dashed lines: our model's probabilities. The market is a benchmark — the model never sees it.",
     preMatchModel: "Pre-match model",
     modelExpectation: "Model expectation",
-    expectedGoalsLine: "Expected goals: {home} – {away} · model probabilities, not betting advice",
+    modelHonestyNote: "Model probabilities — not betting advice.",
     recentForm: "Recent form",
     headToHead: "Head to head",
     h2h: {
@@ -131,8 +131,7 @@ export const en = {
     subbedOff: "Subbed off",
     predictedLineups: "Predicted lineups",
     predictedLineupsNote: "FotMob's projected starting XIs — the official lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff.",
-    predictedVsActual: "Model's pre-match expected goals: {ph} – {pa} · final score {ah}–{aa}",
-    goalsShort: "goals",
+    predictedVsActual: "Model's pre-match prediction: {ph}–{pa} · final score {ah}–{aa}",
     chips: {
       att: "Att",
       ref: "Ref",